A new paper in International Security tackles various overblown fears. It argues that cyberwar won't replace conventional warfare but will be a useful adjunct, at best; and that cyber is not the weapon of the weak, and may actually increase the military advantage of already powerful states. It concludes with this intriguing thought:

...the single most dramatic impact of the cyber world on political conflict may well come in the form of transparency. Nations may find that they can no longer sustain jealously guarded secrets. The phenomenon of classification that led large portions of government activity underground may find itself “outed,” not by alien spies or terrorists, but by groups devoted to the idea that airing national secrets makes it more difficult for governments to connive against one another, or to scheme against their own people.

There is considerable reason to believe that reducing secrecy will lead to a decline in warfare, even if some nations are made worse off in terms of relative power.

Photo by Flickr user Mark, Vicki, Ellaura and Mason.